Estimation Model of Combustible Material Load in Fujian Pinus Massoniana Forests

In order to satisfy the requirements of forest fire prevention and management，and to identify a simplified，rapid method for the estimation of forest combustible material load，a focus was placed on Pinus massoniana，a primary forest type in Fujian Province. Based on the field survey data of tree plots of forest fire risk census in Fujian Province from October 2020 to December 2021，and a multilayered model was constructed to estimate the total combustible material load，including the layers of trees，shrubs，herbs，litter，and humus. A combined estimation approach was employed to address the discrepancy between total and component loads，an enhanced simplex method was applied to calculate model parameters，and cross-model validation was used to verify the model’s precision. The results indicated that，with the exception of the litter layer，the developed compatibility model for estimating combustible material load in both natural and artificial Pinus massoniana forests demonstrated high correlation coefficients and estimation accuracy，validating its practical utility in such estimations. At the same time，the estimation of combustible material load was applied based on actual small class data of Pinus massoniana. The findings of this study can provide reference for forest fire prevention and management efforts，as well as further improvement and optimization of dynamic estimation models for combustible material load.